Climate Change

Climate change is an alteration of the "average weather" that any locality or region experiences. Weather refers to temperature, winds, precipitation, etc. Climate change on a global scale then refers to changes in the average weather of the earth as a whole. These changes tend to have an affect on the natural ecosystems of the planet.

What are greenhouse gases?

In much the same way that the glass on a greenhouse traps heat, the earth's atmosphere also traps heat and keeps us warm. Without these gases that make up the atmosphere, the average temperature of the earth would be 33°C colder (averaging -18° C instead of +15° C), and our planet would be much too cold to support life as we know it.

The main greenhouse gases are (Government of Canada: Climate Change):

Carbon dioxide (CO2) mostly enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels. Methane (CH4) comes from natural gas, livestock and landfills. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the product of fertilizers. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's), perfluorocarbons (PFC's) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) come from the industrial use of refrigeration equipment, heat conductors and insulators. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) are especially harmful to the ozone and have been banned in Canada by the Montreal Protocol.

Sources of CO2 in BC as broken down by percent (based on ARA, 1992)

All of the greenhouse gases have a long residence time within the atmosphere. Recent human activities have greatly increased the amounts of these gases which has intensified the natural greenhouse effect. Since pre-industrial times (1700's), global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have grown significantly. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 30%, methane by 145%, and nitrous oxide by 15%. Based on Antarctic ice core data, current levels of these gases appear to be unprecedented in at least the last 400,000 years (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Third Assessment Report, 2001).

Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere in parts per million from atmospheric measurements and from ice core data

 

What is global warming?

Recorded temperatures only go back as far as about 1860. However, scientists study information contained within glacial ice cores, sediment cores from the bottom of the ocean, and within the rings of long-lived trees to learn about the changes in climate over the past thousands of years.

The climate of the earth has never been a constant. It has gone through dramatic changes in the past (the ice age would be one example). Also, smaller-scale natural variability is to be expected as conditions change on a yearly basis, including phenomena like the El Nino. However, there is increasing evidence that anthropogenic (human) activities are changing the climate at a previously unseen rate.

The international scientific consensus is that our planet has been getting increasingly warmer over the past 100-150 years. This change has not been constant, but rather has been a series of warming and cooling cycles, resulting in a net trend of global warming. Along with this warming, sea levels have been rising, alpine glaciers have been retreating and world climatic zones are shifting. Overall, the average global temperature has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century (Environment Canada's Green Lane).

The Government of Canada's Climate Change web site backs up the recent trend of global warming with the following facts:

Scientists now agree that there is enough evidence to indicate that these trends are caused by human activities and a rapidly growing global population. The burning of fossil fuels to release CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere, deforestation and current agricultural techniques are all enhancing the greenhouse effect. In the Third Assessment Report published in 2001, the IPCC concluded that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities".

Global Warming Locally - BC and the Yukon - British Columbia and Yukon Regional Climate Change

Throughout BC and the Yukon, a local warming trend can be seen as well. The average nighttime temperatures have been increasing, and there are now fewer days of the year with subzero temperatures. The length of the "growing season" has also been increasing - in the period of 1986-1995 it was possible to plant crops three weeks earlier than in the period 1946-1955. The Yukon is expected to have shorter, but more intense, snow seasons with fast melts followed by longer, warmer summers (Taylor and Taylor, 1997). In more urban areas like Vancouver and the Fraser Valley in BC, decreasing precipitation will likely lead to hotter, drier summers, increasing smog and deteriorating air quality (Thomson, 1997).

It has been observed that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events seems to be increasing, especially over the past 10-15 years. In the winter of 1998-99, BC's south coast was ravaged by fifteen severe storms as opposed to its average of three. The blizzard of 1996-97 cost around $200 million dollars alone in economic losses from that one storm. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP, 2001) projects that the cost of global warming will be more than $300 billion.

 

What is the Kyoto Accord?

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty agreed to in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It addresses the issue of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Since anthropogenic (manmade) greenhouse gases come mainly from the burning of oil, gas and coal, the Kyoto Protocol encourages countries to move to more environmentally responsible ways of producing and using energy.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, different countries have different target amounts by which to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by comparison to 1990 levels. For the European Union as a whole, the target is eight percent. Japan's target is seven percent, while Canada's target is six percent. Since our emissions have continued to rise since 1990, we in Canada now need to reduce our levels by approximately 18% compared to today's levels. This must be done by 2008-2012.

Developing countries, including India and China, are not required to reduce their emissions at this point in time. The reasoning for this is twofold: First of all, their per-capita emissions are significantly lower than those in developed countries. Also, they are not as economically able to absorb the costs of the switch to alternative energy sources.

 

How does Canada fit in globally?

Within the federal government, climate change is co-managed by the Minister of the Environment and the Minister of Natural Resources. Other key players in this nationwide effort include several federal government departments, the provincial/territorial Ministers of Energy and Environment, municipalities, as well as scientists, industry, the business community and individual Canadians (Environment Canada's Green Lane).

Canada's average temperature has risen by about 1°C from 1950-2000. There is no conclusive evidence that links weather and the changes in climate, however, as described above, there have been observed changes in weather patterns and the frequency of storms and weather-related disasters.

The average Canadian produces four times the global average level of greenhouse gas emissions (David Suzuki Foundation). To this end, the Canadian Government ratified the Kyoto Protocol, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to six percent below 1990 levels.

On November 21, 2002, the Government of Canada released the "Climate Change Plan for Canada". The Plan outlines how Canada can meet its greenhouse gas reduction target that it set under the Kyoto Protocol. It contains tools and ideas for reducing emissions and identifies areas such as transportation, housing and commercial/institutional buildings, large industrial emitters, small and medium-sized enterprises and areas within the international market. The Plan also suggests a personal goal for each Canadian to reduce emissions by an average of one tonne per year by 2008-2012.

I'm taking the One-Tonne Challenge. Are you?As well, an interactive software tool called the Climate Change Calculator has been developed to raise people’s awareness of the greenhouse gases that they produce through their daily activities and lifestyle choices. In March 2004, the Government of Canada officially launched the One-Tonne Challenge, which calls on individual Canadians to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by one tonne (about 20 percent). On average, each Canadian is responsible for more than five tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year.

The Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) attempts to keep the Canadian public informed so that they will be in a better position to respond to climate change and to contribute to climate change policies. They have published the guide Climate, Nature, People: Indicators of Canada ’s Changing Climate.

 

What are some of the impacts associated with a change in climate?

Some of the likely impacts are:

(For more information on these impacts, see The David Suzuki Foundation web site.)

While overall global temperatures are increasing, regional climates each change differently and some have experienced an overall cooling trend. Climate change is expected to affect human health (e.g., increases in asthma, heat stress and disease transmission), traditional Aboriginal ways of life, air and water availability (e.g., precipitation, stream flow, sea level, ice, snow and glaciers), severe weather events, terrestrial and aquatic habitat, agricultural range and practice and overall national productivity (The Green Lane: Environment Canada's National and Regional Sites).

Not all areas of the world will be equally affected by the changing climate. Warming will likely be experienced more in the polar regions than near the equator, and the continental interiors will also have greater warming than the coastal areas. The Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research has run a number of climate models. Their models look at differences in climate from the years 1960-1990 to 2070-2100. These models predict an average yearly surface air temperature increase within this time period of over 10°C in the northern arctic. Around 60°S of the equator, the average yearly surface air temperature is only predicted to change from 0-1°C. There are similar variations in rainfall, with average daily precipitation amounts predicted to change from -2 to +2 mm of precipitation per day depending on the region.

Climate change is also linked to ozone depletion since the most important ozone-depleting chemicals (CFC's and HFC's) are also greenhouse gases. In fact, ozone itself if a greenhouse gas.

BC Impacts

Less snow means less runoff to glacially fed rivers. Regional hydrologists have already noted changes in the timing and patterns of river and stream flows in BC. A longer growing season also likely lowers the water table, decreasing the water levels in lakes. This, along with an increase in lake temperatures, could lead to increased fish mortality. Overall reductions in snow cover and ice cover on inland lakes have been noted. Temperature increases around the globe are associated with the decline in the thickness and extent of arctic sea ice and a retreat of mountain glaciers. This is believed to have led to an overall rise in global sea levels. In fact, sea levels at most ports in BC have been observed to be rising by about 1mm per year. The city of Richmond, BC, has also taken specific note of this rise in sea level.

BC salmon runs could be particularly affected by changes in water temperature and runoff (Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, 2000). Another affect is on the breeding of certain seabirds. As the oceans warm at a different rate the peak of their prey availability comes a different time, causing a lack of food and a reduction in survival of the chicks. On the other hand, populations of Lesser Snow Geese are increasing as their arctic climate gets warmer. Within BC, evergreen broadleaf arbutus trees are suffering, possibly due to changes in the weather patterns. In Northern and Central BC, increasingly mild winters and fewer days of frost have led to increases in the population of the mountain pine beetle pests. Warmer weather also means that the forests are drying out and becoming more vulnerable to fires.

Now that Canada has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in regards to global warming, British Columbia has a responsibility to meet the challenges of climate change, air pollution and sensible energy choices. The province can make clean, renewable energy and energy efficiency its policy cornerstones – key elements to cut pollution, bring energy price stability and stimulate new jobs.

 

What are some solutions to reduce reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases?

David Suzuki Foundation

Transportation is responsible for more than 27% of Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions. The single biggest source of the massive increase in greenhouse gas emissions in transportation are passenger vehicles (cars and light-duty trucks). The popularity of sports utility vehicles, trucks and minivans, which now account for 50% of new vehicles sales, has had a highly negative impact on average fuel efficiency.

Greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from fossil fuel electricity generation are cause for serious concern. Fossil fuels, particularly coal, remain the primary source of electricity in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. Ontario also has a substantial amount of coal-fired generation, a portion that increased significantly when it was forced to shut down several of its failing nuclear reactors.

Natural gas, in comparison to coal, produces 40-65% cent less greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy. But the emissions produced by natural gas are still substantial - it is only a transitional solution in a long-term shift to renewable energy sources.

Industry produces more than 35% of Canada’s total greenhouse gases. In fact, a small handful of industries produce the vast majority of these emissions. The extractors and refiners of oil and gas are by far the largest single contributors, accounting for 38% of industry emissions. Utilities, cement, iron and steel, chemical and aluminum industries are also major contributors.

Slashing energy use in homes and offices is an important way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and on top of that it saves money. The residential sector accounts for 7% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, while the commercial sector contributes 4.3%t. Most of these emissions come from the use of fossil fuels (mainly fuel oil and natural gas), for space and water heating. Lighting, cooking, heating, cooling and home entertainment also use electricity, which may be generated from fossil fuels.

Methane emissions from landfills account for 2.9% per cent of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions. In the year 2010, that figure is expected to be 19% higher. Methane comes from decomposing organic materials, including food, yard waste, diapers, paper and cardboard. Up to 70% of urban landfill waste generates methane gas. Capturing and burning landfill methane would reduce total emissions. Although burning methane produces carbon dioxide, methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (over its 100 year life span).

Alternatively, keeping organic material from reaching landfills prevents methane generation, as well as reducing acid leacheate which contaminates groundwater. The city of Halifax, Nova Scotia, has one of the world's most progressive organic waste strategies in the form of a municipal compost program that reduces annual methane emissions by more than 500,000 tons (carbon dioxide equivalent).

Helimax Energy, a consulting firm, has written a report detailing the wind energy potential of La belle province. If only 10% of the 100,000 MW of wind energy potential near existing transmission lines was captured, wind energy would account for more than 15% of Quebec’s total electricity production. Three small cities on the coast of British Columbia have enough combined wind energy potential to create 5,000 long-term jobs and millions of dollars in government revenue, according to a wind report commissioned by Greenpeace and the Living Oceans Society (Green Peace Canada).

Please refer to the section on Alternative Energy Sources for more information on wind energy, as well as some other potential cleaner, more efficient energy sources in Canada and North America.

Changing land use patterns to encourage more forests and other plant cover to act as carbon sinks will not only help to suck up the added carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but it will also have the added benefit of setting aside wildlife habitat and restive natural landscapes.

 

What about urban air quality?

Air quality is another large issue. Any actions taken that reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases will also help to improve urban air quality as the burning of fossil fuels is one of the major contributors to the problem of air pollution. Some links to informational web sites on air quality can be found below.

 

Why is all of this important?

With the possibility of offshore oil and gas exploration on BC's coast, decisions need to be made. Should money be invested into fossil fuels that continue to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and contribute to further global warming and climate change? Or should this money instead be invested in alternative, more environmentally friendly energy sources? Is it possible that the revenues gained from the oil and gas industry could be put towards the development of these alternate fuels, or is the price still too high?

 

Climate Change Links

British Columbia and Yukon Regional Climate Change

David Suzuki Foundation

Government of Canada: Climate Change

The Green Lane: Environment Canada's National and Regional Sites: Climate Change

Green Peace Canada

Green Peace International

Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

National Energy Board of Canada

 

Air Quality Links

Clean Air: Air Quality and Environmental Law in Canada

Environment Canada: Air Quality Services

Environment Canada: Clean Air

Environment Canada: Air Pollution Emissions

The Green Lane: Environment Canada's National and Regional Sites: Air Quality

Health Canada: Health and Air Quality

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